Pennsylvania governor, 2026 · Election Day Nov 3, 2026 ·
Shapiro leads by more than 20 points. Here is every number behind it.
Stacy Garrity, the Republican state treasurer, is challenging Governor Josh Shapiro. Likely-voter polls have him ahead by 16 to 25 points, and the prediction markets price him at 96–97%. This site breaks the race down by county, poll, market and voter roll, and lets you build the map she would need.
Published poll average
Shapiro +22.4
5 polls, Sep 15–Oct 5
Kalshi, Garrity wins
3.6¢
Shapiro 96.4¢
Polymarket, Garrity wins
2.5¢
Shapiro 96.7¢
Registered voters
9,026,328
Democrats lead by 234,545, Oct 12
2022 on today’s rolls
Shapiro +14.7
Gap to tie: +7.5 pts in every county
The map at the poll average
Garrity’s two-party share by county if the polls are right. She carries 47 counties; Mastriano carried 50. Select a county for its page.
Who is registered
Pennsylvania’s voter rolls on Oct 12, 2026. The Democratic lead was over a million in 2014.
- Democratic 42.9%
- Republican 40.3%
- No affiliation 13.4%
- Other 3.5%
Last time
2022 governor: Shapiro 3,031,032 (56.5%), Mastriano 2,238,337 (41.7%).
- Shapiro 56.5%
- Mastriano 41.7%
- Other 1.8%
The polls
Published horse-race polls, newest fieldwork first. Margin is Shapiro’s lead in points.
| Poll | Field | Sample | Shapiro | Garrity | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | Oct 1–5 | 1,159 likely voters | 59 | 34 | +25 |
| Z to A (D) | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 630 likely voters | 53 | 34 | +19 |
| Susquehanna (R) | Sep 22–30 | 700 likely voters | 52 | 31 | +21 |
| PennLive / Bravo | Sep 16–22 | 624 registered voters | 55 | 28 | +27 |
| NYT / Siena | Sep 15–22 | 615 likely voters | 58 | 38 | +20 |
RealClearPolitics’ September 15–October 5 average is Shapiro 56.0, Garrity 32.8, a lead of 23.2 points. The only debate was October 7. Cook rates the race Solid Democrat; Sabato’s Crystal Ball has it at Safe Democrat.
The likely-voter sequence that can be compared is August Siena +16, September Siena +20, October Quinnipiac +25. The lead did not close. In the October Quinnipiac poll, 76 percent of people who picked a candidate said they were not at all likely to switch. Shapiro’s job approval is 63–30. Garrity’s favorable rating is 22, unfavorable 32, and 44 percent have not heard enough. Undecided is about 5 percent.
A normal polling miss does not reach a tie. In 2022 the final RealClearPolitics average was Shapiro +8.3 and he won by 14.8.
Money, mail, and the last fortnight
As of Oct 18, 2026.
Money
June 9 to September 14: Shapiro raised $13.3 million, spent about $32 million and held about $19.9 million. Garrity raised $1.8 million, spent $1.6 million and held about $1.4 million. He spent $13.5 million on television in that window; she spent $204,000.
Mail ballots
Pennsylvania has no ordinary in-person early vote. By mid-October about 1.13 million mail applications were approved and about 30 percent were back. Requests ran about 65% Democratic and 24% Republican, the usual Pennsylvania mail split.
Her 2024 win
Garrity won treasurer in 2024 with 3,542,336 votes, about Trump’s Pennsylvania total. Her extra margin over his came from her opponent running about 308,000 votes behind Harris in a down-ballot race. It does not transfer.
What would have to break
She does not have a path the campaign can still choose. The least unlikely leftovers are not a message plan:
- A shock that takes Shapiro off the ballot, or collapses a 63 percent approval rating inside two weeks, after hundreds of thousands of mail ballots are in.
- Likely-voter polls wrong by about 20 points in her direction, across Quinnipiac, Siena, a Republican firm and a Democratic sponsor at once.
- Becoming the Trump 2024 map in two weeks: Republicans from 79 percent to the mid-90s, Trump voters now with Shapiro back on her side, and independents reversed.
A new likely-voter poll from a Quinnipiac or Siena caliber pollster with the lead at 10 points or under would reopen the arithmetic. A lead still at 18 or more ends it. See every path to win.
Explore
Simulator →
Presets, regional sliders, per-county shares and the skill-game shutdown, on a live county map.
Paths to win →
Eleven scenarios on one scale, the regional gap, and the share she needs in each county.
Markets →
Kalshi and Polymarket prices, order books, trades, and what traders expect for margin and turnout.
Counties →
Registration and turnout since 2014 for all 67 counties, with a page for each.
Issues →
What Pennsylvanians are angry about on X, Facebook and Reddit: skill games, electric bills, data centers and more.
Data and methods →
How every number is worked out, the sources, and CSV and Excel downloads.